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UK Agriculture 2026 Outlook: key trends, risks and growth opportunities

Our forward-looking analysis of UK Agriculture: where technology, talent, and trust are redefining strategic decision-making this year.

Ian Burrow, our Head of Agriculture says: “Agriculture is at a crossroads. The choices we make now – embracing technology, investing in talent, and working together – will define the sector for years to come.” 

There’s a sense, as 2026 unfolds, that UK agriculture is standing on the edge of something significant. The sector has weathered its share of storms – literal and figurative – but this year feels different. The familiar rhythms of farming are being disrupted by forces that are both exhilarating and unsettling.

Technology is no longer a distant promise

The talk of AI, robotics, and digital traceability has given way to real decisions about investment and integration. Some farms are quietly transforming their operations, using data to guide everything from input timing to compliance.

Others are watching, weighing the risks, and wondering if the returns will justify the leap. The divide between early adopters and the cautious majority is growing more visible, and the question is shifting: not “should we change?” but “how fast, and on whose terms?”

Talent is another pressure point

The next generation is arriving with new expectations – about work, about business, about the role of farming in society. There’s a quiet revolution underway, as younger operators bring sharper commercial instincts and a willingness to challenge old assumptions.

Yet, the sector still struggles to compete for skills, especially as wage costs rise and rural life presents its own hurdles. Farms that thrive seem to be those that treat people as their most strategic asset, not just a cost to be managed.

Supply chains are being reimagined

The days when traceability and sustainability were marketing slogans are gone. Retailers and processors are demanding real transparency, and farmers are finding that data is now as valuable as grain or milk.

The most resilient businesses are those that see supply chains as partnerships – where risk and reward are shared, and where long-term contracts offer a measure of stability in an unpredictable world.

Sustainability and regenerative agriculture are moving from rhetoric to reality

There’s a growing impatience with talk and a hunger for action. The sector knows it must do more – on soils, on biodiversity, on carbon – but confidence is fragile.

Policy uncertainty and financial pressures have left many farmers hesitant to commit to large-scale change. The ones making progress are those willing to experiment, measure, and learn – even if only on a small part of their land.

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Navigating 2026 headwinds in Agriculture

Inheritance tax reform is forcing families to confront succession and investment decisions sooner than planned.

Two tough weather years have left arable businesses facing cashflow crunches, and climate risk is now a permanent feature of the landscape. The sector’s call for clarity and certainty from government has rarely felt more urgent.

Yet, for all the challenges, there’s a sense of possibility. The businesses that are quietly pulling ahead aren’t necessarily the biggest or the boldest - they’re the ones that adapt quickly, collaborate widely, and keep a close eye on their numbers.

They treat technology as a tool, not a trophy. They invest in people, not just machinery. They build supply chain relationships that go beyond price. And they approach sustainability as a journey, not a destination.

Ian adds: “This year, perhaps more than any in recent memory, is about bending the curve - on productivity, on resilience, on sustainability.

“It’s about moving from talk to action, solo effort to partnership, from tradition to transformation. The sector doesn’t need a revolution, but it does need a renewed sense of confidence and purpose.

“The edge of change is a precarious place. But it’s also where the future is made.”

Dive into the full set of 2026 sector insights and discover our practical guidance to get your business Future Fit for 2026: Sector Trends

This material is published by NatWest Group plc (“NatWest Group”), for information purposes only and should not be regarded as providing any specific advice. Recipients should make their own independent evaluation of this information and no action should be taken, solely relying on it. This material should not be reproduced or disclosed without our consent. It is not intended for distribution in any jurisdiction in which this would be prohibited. Whilst this information is believed to be reliable, it has not been independently verified by NatWest Group and NatWest Group makes no representation or warranty (express or implied) of any kind, as regards the accuracy or completeness of this information, nor does it accept any responsibility or liability for any loss or damage arising in any way from any use made of or reliance placed on, this information. Unless otherwise stated, any views, forecasts, or estimates are solely those of NatWest Group, as of this date and are subject to change without notice. Copyright © NatWest Group. All rights reserved.

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