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  • London, South West and East of England experience growth in September
  • Employment in Scotland and Northern Ireland remains resilient 
  • Business expectations for year ahead show mixed trends

 

Business activity rose in three of the 12 UK nations and regions monitored by the survey in September, down from ten in August. The Tracker's headline figure is the Business Activity Index. Any reading above 50.0 signals growth, and the further above the 50.0 threshold the faster the rate of growth signalled. The three areas that saw a rise in business activity were London (index at 53.8), the East of England (51.3) and South West (51.0). Rates of growth did, however, ease in each case. The South East saw no change in output from the month before, while declines were recorded elsewhere. Northern Ireland (44.9) remained at the bottom of the rankings for business activity. 

 

Sebastian Burnside, NatWest Chief Economist, commented: "Following the generally positive results we saw in August, the findings from September's Growth Tracker show that most regions were unable to build on the momentum from the month before. Some pockets of growth remain, not least in London which has a maintained a relatively solid pace of expansion. 

"The mixed trends we're seeing in expectations for the year ahead likely reflects a degree of business uncertainty. Regions right across the UK reported rising costs, indicating there’s more to do to keep a lid on inflation in the coming months. "In most areas, businesses' costs continue to rise faster than they typically have done in the past, which is impacting firms' hiring decisions. Scotland and Northern Ireland were the outliers in seeing marginal increases in employment in September."

 

Please see the regional reports in full:

East of England (PDF, 912KB)

East Midlands (PDF, 941KB)

London (PDF, 869KB)

North East (PDF, 878KB)

North West (PDF, 1,420KB)

UK National (PDF, 1,700KB)

Scotland (PDF, 1,535KB) 

South East (PDF, 1,100KB)

South West (PDF, 951KB)

Wales (PDF, 944KB)

West Midlands (PDF, 2,537KB)

Yorkshire and the Humber (PDF, 971KB)

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This material is published by NatWest Group plc (“NatWest Group”), for information purposes only and should not be regarded as providing any specific advice. Recipients should make their own independent evaluation of this information and no action should be taken, solely relying on it. This material should not be reproduced or disclosed without our consent. It is not intended for distribution in any jurisdiction in which this would be prohibited. Whilst this information is believed to be reliable, it has not been independently verified by NatWest Group and NatWest Group makes no representation or warranty (express or implied) of any kind, as regards the accuracy or completeness of this information, nor does it accept any responsibility or liability for any loss or damage arising in any way from any use made of or reliance placed on, this information. Unless otherwise stated, any views, forecasts, or estimates are solely those of NatWest Group, as of this date and are subject to change without notice. Copyright © NatWest Group. All rights reserved.

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