Economics

NatWest UK Regional Growth Tracker report for January 2026

Improved outlook for most UK nations and regions with fresh shoots of business growth

13 Feb 2026

The latest NatWest Regional Growth Tracker, shows business activity has risen across the majority of UK areas during January – the highest number since August 2025.

The findings reflect generally stronger demand for goods and services at the start of the new year as confidence improves across most areas.

Nine regions record activity growth in January - up from four in December
Business activity growth at its broadest since August last year
Confidence towards future activity improves in most areas
But hiring remains subdued despite stronger demand for goods and services

For the second month in a row, general expectations for business activity in the year ahead improved, but employment continued to fall despite the uplift.

The Tracker's headline figure is the Business Activity Index. Any reading above 50.0 signals growth, and the further above the 50.0 threshold it is, the faster the rate of signalled growth.

Business activity growth was recorded in nine out of the 12 regions monitored by the survey in January, the most since August last year.

Firms in London once again registered the quickest rate of expansion, with an index reading of 57.7 (up from 54.9), building on its success as the fastest-growing region on average across the whole of last year (2025).

There was continued upturn in the West Midlands (54.4) following a solid final quarter of 2025. It is in joint second place with the North East (54.4), which is up from seventh place last month.

Scotland (50) saw output stabilise, while slower declines were recorded in the East Midlands (49.9) and Yorkshire & Humber (49.3).

Commenting on the Tracker’s findings, Sebastian Burnside, NatWest Chief Economist, said:

“It has been an encouraging start to the year for most UK regions, with trends in business activity generally improving and showing promising shoots of growth. Nine areas saw output increase in January, the most since last August, and there were signs of stabilisation elsewhere.

"Growth expectations for the next 12 months are higher than they were in comparison to this time last year, with improvements in demand for goods and services in most areas in January potentially providing a boost to the outlook for 2026.

"However in the jobs market firms are reporting low levels of hiring activity and decreases in employment in almost all regions. Such reductions are unusual relative to the expansion of output that firms are recording, suggesting a renewed drive on improving productivity.”

Please see the regional reports in full:

East of England (PDF, 788.4KB)

East Midlands (PDF, 764KB)

London (PDF, 773KB)

North East (PDF, 661KB)

North West (PDF, 1247KB)

UK National (PDF, 1,744KB)

South East (PDF, 1643KB)

South West (PDF, 843KB)

Wales (PDF, 950KB)

West Midlands (PDF, 773KB)

Yorkshire and the Humber (PDF, 2379KB)