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  • Ten out of 12 UK nations and regions record business activity growth, the joint-most for two years    
  • More areas also record job creation, but growth expectations soften in most cases
  • Rates of input cost inflation tick up almost across the board


The majority of the 12 UK nations and regions monitored by the Growth Tracker saw an increase in business activity in September. The number (ten) was the joint-highest for two years. On the other hand, most areas recoded lower growth expectations for the coming year and saw a rise in cost pressures facing local businesses.

The Tracker's headline figure is the Business Activity Index. Any reading above 50.0 signals growth, and the further above the 50.0 threshold it is, the faster the rate of signalled growth. 

London recorded the steepest expansion (index at 53.7) despite seeing growth ease from the month before, while the North East (52.0), West Midlands (51.4) and East Midlands (51.2) each recorded renewed increases in output. Scotland (48.8) and the North West (49.0) both recorded modest falls in activity.
 

Commenting on the Tracker’s findings, Sebastian Burnside, NatWest Chief Economist, said: 

"The encouraging story from September is that growth is no longer being driven by just a handful of regions. Business activity expanded across most parts of the UK, and job creation became more widespread than at any point for almost two years.

"However, businesses are having to balance that growth against a fresh rise in costs. Input price inflation accelerated across almost the entire country during September, highlighting the pressures that continue to weigh on investment and hiring decisions.

"Businesses remain resilient and broadly optimistic, but with confidence easing and the Budget approaching, many firms will be looking for greater certainty to help turn optimism into investment and growth."
 

Please see the regional reports in full:

North East (PDF, 912KB)

UK National (PDF, 832KB)

Scotland (PDF, 877KB) 

South East (PDF, 939KB)

South West (PDF, 973KB)

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