From tariffs to sanctions, the age of globalisation is in retreat – and a new, decidedly more mixed picture, is swimming into focus.

But how does the dawning age of trade barriers, tariffs and sanctions affect you and your money? And are there any opportunities amid the change?

For the past 40 years, globalisation has been a fact of life.

From the food on our tables to the jobs we do, our economic fortunes have been closely tied to the global megatrend: Freer trade with fewer restrictions.

But now all that is changing.

According to the IMF, the number of trade restrictions imposed annually worldwide increased from about 1,000 in 2019 to around 3,000 in 2023. In the year to October 2024 alone, a further 611 were added.

“There is increasing evidence of inward-looking trade policies which could generate further uncertainty for the world economy,” warned World Trade Organisation director general Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala late last year.

Now that has ramped up dramatically since the election of Donald Trump in the US in November 2024. Such is the sheer volume of pronouncements about new trade restrictions thrown up by the current US administration that the picture changes. New tariffs, threats of tariffs, amended tariffs, doubled tariffs, are seemingly announced daily.

It's not all the US though. Other changes in the geopolitical landscape – from Britain’s exit from the EU, to sanctions imposed on Russia in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine – add to the picture of a world more partitioned than it has been in more than 35 years, since the end of the Cold War. 

But the true picture is somewhat more nuanced, says Marcus Wright, Head of Forecasting and Stress-Testing Scenarios for NatWest.

“It’s quite a nuanced story, he says. “The period of hyper-globalisation has long since come to an end. But in the data, you find there’s not really been a complete reversal out of globalisation either.”

“The word ‘deglobalisation’ is too simple in some ways,” he points out.

“What’s happening right now is we’re seeing global trade splintering into two blocs – around China, and around the US. And the edges are a bit fuzzy around that. Some countries will be able to straddle both sides. Some may even move between them.”

Wright also points to the fact that this splintering effects only a portion of the picture.

“US and Western interests align in a number of goods sectors, including semiconductors, critical minerals, defence and information processing equipment. We can think of these areas as those along which fracturing will take place and so have a question mark over them as to how those supply chains evolve and are configured in coming years. In other words, there’s significant potential for supply chains around these areas to shift, and it’s possible we end up with two distinct systems established within each bloc. So if you source goods in these areas or produce goods in these areas, there’s huge potential for change. 

“What does this add up to in terms of global trade? According to Neal Shearing in his book The Fractured Age, it’s around three trillion dollars’ worth – or 15 per cent of the global trade total.”

So much for the big picture. But deglobalisation comes with a street-level change too. So what does all this mean for investments? After all, a world of barriers would seem to imply fewer opportunities. 

Again, it’s not as simple as that. Historically, the same pressures that close avenues have a tendency to open up others. Some sectors, countries, even regions, may benefit from the current redrawing of the global trade map.

“It’s about shifts rather than reversals,” says Marcus Wright. “There’s less trade between the China and US blocs. They’re pulling apart a little bit. But it’s shifting round, and that brings about opportunities.

“The level of direct investment into China from the US was $122bn last year, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. That’s a little over half of one percent of China’s GDP. Not much, in other words. But it’s worth a lot more to other developing countries in the region, being worth about 3% of India’s GDP, and almost a tenth of Indonesia’s GDP. For Vietnam and Malaysia it’s equal to over a quarter of their GDP. That sum could really help catapult their own manufacturing bases and boost their own development.”

Indeed, this year, the World Economic Forum highlighted the example of South-East Asia as likely beneficiaries of a cooling of US-China trade in the wake of tariffs. “As established trading relationships disintegrate, and new relationships form,” it reported this year. “South-East Asia is seeing new trading patterns emerge as US and China ties falter.”

Standard & Poor’s latest global report on Chinese trade went further, identifying China’s post-tariff pivot in terms of trade ties towards the global South – South America, Sub-Saharan Africa and South-East Asia.

If those regions do see growth driven by reallocated investment, then investors will want to watch them closely. 

It’s a fast-changing picture, and it’s partly this speed of change – as well as the complexity of the events it drives – that makes expertise so valuable.

Where navigating this sort of change alone is tough, doing so in the hands of an experienced fund manager is a lot simpler, and safer.

NatWest Premier offers investment options, including tax-efficient savings like ISAs, Junior ISAs, and pensions. You could access expertly managed funds and portfolios by Coutts, that could help your money flourish over the long term. Book a free consultation with Premier Financial Planning.

We’ve partnered with Coutts since 1969. They have more than £56bn in assets under management and administration (Q3 2025) and more than 300 years of experience.  

1. The picture is nuanced. While the age of hyper-globalisation has passed, globalisation is not in anything like full retreat.
2. For the portion of global trade affected, we may well see separate blocs emerging, with their own versions of technologies and supply chains. These could present opportunities as well as watchouts.
3. There are sectors and counties who seem well placed to benefit, as alliances are reshaped. South-East Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa and South America have been singled out by Standard & Poor as examples.
4. Your Premier team will be able to help you navigate these new realities.