1) Geopolitics: New divides and new technology
Scott Livingston CMG OBE describes the global environment as entering a paradigm shift, driven largely by political fragmentation and rapid technological transformation. Politically, the familiar post‑war order is loosening. Power is moving from West to East and middle powers such as India and Turkey are asserting greater influence. Long‑standing institutions — from the UN to the World Bank — are under pressure and do not hold the same sway as a generation ago.
Alongside this fragmentation of power sits a fragmentation of ideas and norms, with once‑settled principles, including territorial integrity and climate science, are now increasingly contested in some spheres. In parallel, technological revolutions in AI, automation, quantum computing, sensing, energy and biotechnology are accelerating the pace of change.
Scott argues that these forces are reshaping not just economies but geopolitical power itself, making warfare cheaper, reigniting historical grievances, and transforming supply chains into strategic assets. Despite the turbulence, he notes that awareness of these risks is leading to increased investment and realignment, creating opportunities as well as challenges.
2) Investing through uncertainty: Strong fundamentals driving markets
Fahad Kamal emphasised that while the geopolitical landscape feels unsettled, long‑term investment returns have remained remarkably strong. He stresses that investors must learn to live with this cognitive dissonance, separating emotionally charged news from the underlying fundamentals that actually drive markets.
Over the long run, equities have far outperformed cash and bonds precisely because they involve bouts of discomfort and volatility. What matters most is not the daily news cycle but the health of the macroeconomic backdrop — employment levels, consumer spending, company earnings, and the broader economic momentum. Fahad emphasises that successful investing requires clarity about one’s risk tolerance, an understanding of worst‑case scenarios, and the discipline to remain invested through periods of uncertainty. Markets will always react to unforeseen events, but time and prudent risk management remain the most reliable drivers of long-term outcomes.
3) Portfolio positioning: Optimistic but risk‑aware
In terms of positioning, the team is currently optimistic about the global outlook, supported by strong economic fundamentals and record levels of corporate earnings. Portfolios are therefore tilted towards seeking growth through equity exposure, which is where the most compelling long‑term opportunities are found.
However, this optimism is balanced carefully with robust downside protection. The Coutts investment team, who manage Premier investment portfolios, use high‑quality government and corporate bonds to provide stability, while gold is used as a proven crisis hedge. They also use other alternative strategies, incorporated to diversify risk further by behaving differently from equity markets during periods of stress. The overarching aim is to manage “drawdown” — the depth of loss if there is a market fall — in line with each client’s personal risk appetite, ensuring portfolios remain resilient while being positioned to capture growth.
4) The Tax Landscape: Fiscal Drag, IHT Changes and Practical Planning
Tax specialist Irene Wolstenholme MVO explains that many of the most significant tax impacts today arise not from headline-grabbing reforms but from the cumulative effect of frozen thresholds. Income tax bands, including the £12,570 personal allowance, remain fixed until 2031, while inheritance tax thresholds have been static for almost two decades.
This “fiscal drag” means more individuals are crossing key thresholds, particularly around £100,000, where small increases in income can have large consequences for allowances and benefits. Looking ahead, meaningful inheritance tax changes relating to business assets and pension funds will require more proactive planning, especially given the role pensions now play as major assets.
With the tax year ending over Easter, practical planning needs to be completed earlier — effectively by 2 April — to make use of pensions, ISAs, annual gifts and other allowances.
5) Ethical standards, crypto, and currencies: Key themes from Q&A
The Q&A touched on a range of topical issues. On ethics, the speakers reinforced that NatWest maintains clearly defined exclusion policies, regularly reviewed, and grounded in the principles of the rule of law and responsible conduct. These standards determine what the bank will and will not invest in and are publicly available.
When asked about crypto assets, Fahad explained that it does not currently meet the criteria for evidence‑based, model‑driven investment because it lacks intrinsic valuation anchors and behaves poorly as a crisis hedge compared with gold.
Concerns around private credit markets were addressed by emphasising that recent stresses are not systemic in the way the 2008 financial crisis was, and that current economic strength is supporting overall resilience. On the question of the market outlook — whether in U.S. equities, gold, or AI — the view is that while nothing can be stated with certainty in real time, current valuations are broadly supported by strong earnings trends rather than speculative excess.
Finally, on foreign exchange, the team remains modestly positive on sterling, expecting gradual strength against the dollar towards 1.40 and relative stability against the euro, while maintaining appropriate humility and hedging given the inherent volatility of currency markets.
This article and video are for information only — it does not constitute investment advice, and views shared may change. All investments involve risk, and the value of investments can fall as well as rise.
While we are tax aware and factor this into are thinking and planning for clients, we don’t give tax advice and recommend that clients should speak to a specialist tax adviser.
