We recently hosted a customer event to provide global market insights and potential investor guidance from our panel of experts.

Scott Livingstone CMG OBE, International Adviser; Joe Aylott, Multi Asset Strategist and Irene Wolstenholme MVO Chartered Accountant and Chartered Tax Adviser were our speakers.

Here are the key insights from the evening.

Scott opened the session by describing the global landscape as a ‘perfect storm’ created by four major forces: climate pressures, demographic shifts, technological disruption and a global realignment of political power. Instead of focusing on individual conflicts, he explained that these broader drivers help explain why global tensions have risen.

Climate‑related pressures, including water scarcity and competition for natural resources, are increasingly shaping political decisions. Demographic trends, particularly ageing populations and migration, continue to influence global stability. Meanwhile, geopolitical power is shifting away from traditional Western structures towards emerging nations such as India, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Indonesia. Many post‑war governance frameworks are now strained or losing relevance.

However, Scott highlighted that the most significant force shaping the coming decades is technology. Nations are competing for relevance—or dominance—in areas such as AI, quantum computing, biotech, energy and space. The future geopolitical landscape will be defined by who controls the data, infrastructure and supply chains underpinning these technologies. As this competition intensifies, global fragmentation is set to continue, creating an environment of heightened uncertainty.

Joe followed with an assessment of global markets, noting that geopolitical events typically cause short‑term volatility but rarely derail long‑term returns. His team has studied over 40 geopolitical flashpoints since the 1950s and found that markets often recover within 12 months unless disruptions to oil and gas supplies persist.

Despite recent tensions, the global economy entered the year in relatively strong health, with resilient labour markets and solid earnings growth. Joe emphasised the importance of maintaining a long‑term perspective, avoiding the temptation to react emotionally to headlines, and grounding investment decisions in underlying fundamentals such as corporate profitability, consumer demand and productivity trends.

The Coutts investment team remains constructive on the outlook for 2026, supported by robust global earnings and encouraging signs that AI is boosting productivity across multiple sectors—not just technology. Joe highlighted emerging markets as a particularly attractive opportunity given their growing importance in semiconductor production, AI infrastructure and global supply chains.

Portfolios are positioned to capture this growth while remaining resilient. This includes diversification across high‑quality government and corporate bonds, gold as a crisis hedge, and alternative strategies designed to behave differently during periods of market stress. The overall aim is to manage risk thoughtfully while maintaining exposure to long‑term growth themes.

Inheritance Tax (IHT) changes and practical planning 

Irene closed the evening with an overview of UK tax changes. While headline reforms have been limited, the freezing of income tax and inheritance tax thresholds until 2031 means more individuals are being pulled into higher tax brackets—a trend known as fiscal drag. The £100,000 income level continues to be a particularly significant threshold due to the tapering of the personal allowance and potential loss of childcare benefits.

She also outlined forthcoming changes to inheritance tax business reliefs and the treatment of pension funds, both of which require forward planning given their significance to the value of an estate. With the tax year ending immediately after the Easter weekend, customers were encouraged to complete ISA contributions, pension funding and gifting allowances ahead of 2 April.

Irene also addressed recent UK residency rule changes, clarifying that while media coverage suggests wealthy individuals are leaving the UK, the reality is more nuanced. Many are choosing to stay due to practical considerations, and some returning expats may benefit from favourable tax treatment during their first decade back in the UK.

This article and video are for information only — it does not constitute investment advice, and views shared may change. All investments involve risk, and the value of investments can fall as well as rise.

While we are tax aware and factor this into are thinking and planning for customers, we don’t give tax advice and reccomend that customers should speak to a specialist tax adviser.