Imagine you are re-fitting a bathroom. Traditionally you see an ad, search for products, read reviews, select items, check out and make payments. In the age of agentic commerce, you instruct your AI to source the best suppliers, generate summaries, and handle orders. Your AI agent takes care of everything – from placing the order to managing payment, all while seamlessly integrating with apps like Gmail and Google Drive.

What is Google’s motivation? According to Statista, Google process 5.9 million searches per minute – equivalent to 8.5 billion per day. But with increased competition from platforms like ChatGPT (which is thought to handle 1 billion queries per day), Google’s advertising revenue appears under threat. 

The convergence of buying intent and decision-making is becoming alarmingly seamless, and Google is acutely aware of the threat. Which is why Google is transforming its search capabilities into an expansive AI chatbot with virtual try-ons, price tracking, and forthcoming agentic checkout tools for ownership of the consumer journey - before, during, and after payment.

Naturally, this radical evolution poses a significant challenge for merchants and processors alike. If AI agents are making purchases before a webpage even loads, everything we’ve relied on at checkout – from fraud prevention to conversion optimisation – needs to adapt for AI agents and not human consumers. Merchants may find themselves facing a backlash, while acquirers could block transactions, leading to potentially plummeting conversion rates.

The implications of autonomous AI payments raise a host of fraud prevention questions, too. Current detection tools are designed for human behaviour, not for AI agents. The questions are staggering: Who deals with fraudulent purchases? What happens if a product doesn’t match its description? How do we validate customer identities, and who bears the risk? Every fraud model will need a complete overhaul to keep pace with this new world.

This newfound efficiency raises critical questions. How will they integrate with Google's evolving system? As brand owners, what’s their new value proposition? Imagine how this may look: 

Awareness: You learn about products through your AI assistant.

Consideration: The chatbot recommends based on your context.

Intention: The AI agent selects items, communicates with merchants, and authorises payments.

Payment: The agent manages payment credentials and execution.

For merchants accustomed to optimised checkout pages, this shift to "ambient commerce" (yes, a new buzzword is on the horizon) will turn buying decisions into unconscious executions. How will cart abandonment strategies work when there’s no traditional cart?

We must grapple with profound questions as technology makes commerce invisible. If the mechanisms behind ads influence purchasing decisions, then control over recommendations translates to control over human desires. As we navigate this uncharted territory, many critical questions remain unanswered: What if customers never receive their goods? Who handles disputes, and who is liable if an agent makes an erroneous purchase? What if an agent is compromised by a third party?

The crux of the matter is this: when commerce becomes invisible, control becomes everything. The entity that can interpret intent first not only secures the transaction but also shapes human desire itself. This evolution isn’t merely about payments; it’s about a world where machines predict our wants before we even recognise them.

While this sounds enticing, we must tread carefully. Before allowing AI agents to monopolise human decisions or cross ethical lines, we must establish secure infrastructures, ethical guidelines, and regulatory guardrails. The industry must collaborate to ensure we navigate this transformative phase responsibly, the timeline to address these challenges is shorter than we might think.

Visit our Insights hub for more views on the latest trends shaping the payments landscape and speak to our specialists about how these disruptive forces could affect your business.