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NatWest were pleased to host our Paris-based clients for a thematic evening focused on “2026 Outlook: Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Drivers”. The event brought together economists, strategists, and market practitioners to discuss the factors shaping capital markets in the year ahead.

We were delighted to welcome a range of experts and industry guests who shared their perspectives:

  • Macroeconomic outlook for 2026: Giovanni Zanni (Chief Euro Area Economist, NatWest) and Oriane Parmentier (European Rates Strategist, NatWest) examined economic trends expected to influence markets.
  • Geopolitics key trends: Scott Livingstone (International Advisor, NatWest), who has extensive experience in government and international affairs, provided an overview of current geopolitical developments and their possible implications.
  • Debt capital markets and sustainable finance expectations for 2026: moderated by Arthur Krebbers (Managing Director, Sustainable Finance Advisory, NatWest), with contributions from Matthew Reed (Head of ESG, EDF), Nicolas Marchessaux (Head of Capital Markets and Investor Relations, SNCF), and Elisa Belgacem (Credit Strategist, Generali) outlining practical experiences in sustainable finance.

Key takeaways: macroeconomic and geopolitical themes

Throughout the sessions, several themes emerged as being relevant to markets in 2026:

  1. Global geopolitical shifts and uncertainty: many conflicts from 2025 remain unresolved, raising the potential for continued volatility. The reduced influence of traditional global institutions adds to unpredictability in political outcomes and market complexity.
  2. France and Europe central to geopolitical challenges: Europe, particularly France, is positioned at the centre of international tension – managing issues involving Russia, China, the United States, and the rise of populist movements. Political risk is expected to have greater impact than fiscal concerns for French bond spreads, though France’s diversified economy and market liquidity may help mitigate some risk.
  3. Diversification of funding base: French issuers are increasingly looking beyond traditional Euro investors, tapping into global demand for greater funding flexibility and resilience. This trend highlights the importance of maintaining a broad network of investor relationships.
  4. Climate change as a political and market driver: sustainability continues to influence policy and investment strategies. Green finance is regarded as a meaningful part of future planning, with issuers and investors working to demonstrate measurable impact and align with evolving objectives.

Looking forward

As the market prepares for 2026, NatWest aims to support clients as they adapt to ongoing changes. By focusing on agility, diversification, and sustainability, Corporate Treasurers and CFOs can position their organisations for stability and progress in a complex environment.

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