Poland’s upcoming election could reverberate throughout Europe

Poland’s presidential election in May 2025 is a critical moment that could enable long-awaited reforms.

26 Feb 2025 . 4 min read

Poland’s 2025 presidential election is a pivotal moment for the country’s democracy and economy.

The current government, led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition (KO), has faced significant roadblocks from the incumbent president, Andrzej Duda, a member of the opposition Law and Justice Party (PiS).

Given that Duda is ineligible for re-election due to term limits, the outcome will determine whether the government can proceed with its judicial and democratic reforms or if PiS will maintain its influence.

If KO’s candidate wins, Poland could see judicial reforms, a stronger PLN, and closer EU ties. If PiS retains the presidency, it would maintain significant influence over the judiciary and central bank, potentially stalling reforms and impacting financial markets. Regardless of the outcome, the election will shape Poland’s political and economic landscape for years to come.

Election timeline and candidates

The first round of voting is scheduled for 18 May with a likely runoff on 1 June (where no candidate secures more than 50% of the vote in the first round). Given that multiple parties are fielding candidates, a second round is likely.

KO’s candidate is Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, a well-known progressive politician with a strong pro-EU stance. Trzaskowski, who lost narrowly to Duda in the 2020 election, has experience as Poland’s former EU Affairs Minister.

PiS’s candidate is Karol Nawrocki, a historian and head of the National Remembrance Institute. Unlike Trzaskowski, Nawrocki has never held a government position and is largely unknown to the public. He represents a conservative and traditionalist stance, opposing relaxation of Poland’s restrictive abortion laws.

Current political landscape and challenges

Poland has a dual system where presidential and parliamentary elections are separate, leading to divided governance. In the 2023 parliamentary elections, KO gained control, ending PiS’s eight-year rule. However, PiS remains the largest party in parliament, which, along with Duda’s presidential veto, has allowed them to obstruct KO’s reform agenda.

Key issues in the election include judicial reforms, national security, economic stability and immigration.

The opinion polls so far (%)

Source: Link Fieldwork

Election impact on reforms

A KO presidency would return Poland to a pro-EU stance. The EU has already released Poland’s previously frozen funding, expecting reforms to progress. If Trzaskowski wins, KO will have an opportunity to remove legal barriers that have prevented judicial independence reforms.

However, if Nawrocki wins, PiS will likely continue using presidential powers to block reforms. A Nawrocki victory could also renew tensions between Poland and the EU.

These include a National Council for the Judiciary, reforms to the Constitutional Tribunal and a special chamber in the Supreme Court to rule on election disputes.

What the election outcome could mean for markets

The election outcome will likely influence the National Bank of Poland’s policies.

A KO win could delay an interest rate cuts as the bank’s leadership faces potential government scrutiny and removal. A PiS victory might accelerate cuts, as the central bank governor, Adam Glapiński, would be shielded from such scrutiny.

A win for the pro-EU KO could lead to a revaluation of Polish assets. Poland returning to the EU fold and restoring judicial independence would be PLN supportive.

Login to Market Insights for more in-depth analysis about global markets. Don’t have access? Ask your NatWest representative or contact us here.

All articles

This article has been prepared for information purposes only, does not constitute an analysis of all potentially material issues and is subject to change at any time without prior notice. NatWest Markets does not undertake to update you of such changes. It is indicative only and is not binding. Other than as indicated, this article has been prepared on the basis of publicly available information believed to be reliable but no representation, warranty, undertaking or assurance of any kind, express or implied, is made as to the adequacy, accuracy, completeness or reasonableness of the information contained in this article, nor does NatWest Markets accept any obligation to any recipient to update or correct any information contained herein. Views expressed herein are not intended to be and should not be viewed as advice or as a personal recommendation. The views expressed herein may not be objective or independent of the interests of the authors or other NatWest Markets trading desks, who may be active participants in the markets, investments or strategies referred to in this article. NatWest Markets will not act and has not acted as your legal, tax, regulatory, accounting or investment adviser; nor does NatWest Markets owe any fiduciary duties to you in connection with this, and/or any related transaction and no reliance may be placed on NatWest Markets for investment advice or recommendations of any sort. You should make your own independent evaluation of the relevance and adequacy of the information contained in this article and any issues that are of concern to you.

This article does not constitute an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, nor does it constitute an offer to provide any products or services that are capable of acceptance to form a contract. NatWest Markets and each of its respective affiliates accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential losses (in contract, tort or otherwise) arising from the use of this material or reliance on the information contained herein. However this shall not restrict, exclude or limit any duty or liability to any person under any applicable laws or regulations of any jurisdiction which may not be lawfully disclaimed.

NatWest Markets Plc. Incorporated and registered in Scotland No. 90312 with limited liability. Registered Office: 36 St Andrew Square, Edinburgh EH2 2YB. Authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority. NatWest Markets N.V. is incorporated with limited liability in The Netherlands, authorised and supervised by De Nederlandsche Bank, the European Central Bank and the Autoriteit Financiële Markten. It has its seat at Amsterdam, The Netherlands, and is registered in the Commercial Register under number 33002587. Registered Office: Claude Debussylaan 94, Amsterdam, The Netherlands. NatWest Markets Plc is, in certain jurisdictions, an authorised agent of NatWest Markets N.V. and NatWest Markets N.V. is, in certain jurisdictions, an authorised agent of NatWest Markets Plc. NatWest Markets Securities Japan Limited [Kanto Financial Bureau (Kin-sho) No. 202] is authorised and regulated by the Japan Financial Services Agency. Securities business in the United States is conducted through NatWest Markets Securities Inc., a FINRA registered broker-dealer (http://www.finra.org), a SIPC member (www.sipc.org) and a wholly owned indirect subsidiary of NatWest Markets Plc.