Consumer price inflation in the vast majority of major markets and economies has reached fresh highs over the course of the last month. That increase has prompted interest rate markets to price in more interest rate hikes from central banks and a general rise in yields.
However, fundamental data has been much more mixed – with signals that the problems around hiring persists and could constrain growth, investment is weak, and services activity slower into the end of ‘21 and the start of ‘22, according to survey data.
Central banks seem to agree with the markets on the need for rate increases generally, but what does the outlook look like for growth in a higher interest rate environment?
Are central banks condemning economies to real income and earnings reductions in an effort to get on top of inflation predominantly created elsewhere?
In this webinar, recorded on 8 February 2022, Neil Parker, our FX Market Strategist, offers his views.