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Europe’s energy mix in 2026: where renewables, gas and geopolitics collide

How are European energy systems adapting to new vulnerabilities?

16 Apr 2026 . 3 min read

Europe’s energy system is in better shape than it was during the 2022 crisis, but it's far from truly independent. Progress has been made, but new vulnerabilities have replaced old ones.

Europe entered 2026 with an energy system in its strongest position since the 2022 crisis, yet true energy independence remains elusive. What is happening, at a glance?

Renewables are growing fast

Renewables accounted for 47.5% of EU electricity generation in 2025, with wind and solar climbing to 30.2% – up sharply from 22.7% in 2022. Solar had a record-breaking year, producing more power than ever before.

Europe’s energy mix is shifting

Source: NatWest, Ember

But gas is still a major problem

When Europe cut ties with Russian pipeline gas after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, it switched to liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipped by tanker. This gas costs significantly more, and Europe now has to compete with countries like Japan and South Korea to buy it. Gas prices are currently over 70% higher than they were before the conflict.

Europe's underground gas reserves are below 30% - historically low for this time of year. The EU requires countries to fill these stores to 90% before 1 November.

The Middle East conflict has made things worse

The recent escalation in the region has rattled energy markets. While Europe doesn't directly import much gas through the Strait of Hormuz, any disruption to global supplies - particularly from Qatar - pushes prices up everywhere. The graph below tells the story.

European gas prices are up in 2026…

Sources: NatWest, Bloomberg

Gas use has fallen, but not fast enough

Europe is using about 15% less gas than before 2022, thanks to better efficiency, switching to other fuels, and some industries shutting down. However, it is worth noting that a cold start to 2025 pushed consumption back up slightly, showing how weather-dependent the situation still is.

Countries are not all in the same boat

There are divergent levels of national resilience across EU member states. Slovenia, for instance, implemented fuel rationing; Italy cut the price of oil at the pump by 25 cents while Spain deployed a broader €5bn support package. The crisis has also pressured the green transition timeline, with Romania invoking security exemptions to reopen coal mines.

Russia is being phased out

The EU has passed a law making it illegal to buy Russian gas, with a full ban on all Russian gas imports by the end of September 2027. The remaining gas still trickling through Turkey (the last active Russian pipeline route) will be cut off too. Europe has made real progress in weaning itself off Russian energy, but it has traded one dependency for another — Russian pipelines for global LNG markets. With storage low, prices high, and geopolitical tensions ongoing, the coming winter carries real risks.

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